TSW :TROPICAL STORM WARNING :HURRICANE/TYPHOON FORECAST AND STRIKE PROBABILITY

RED ALERT!!!: Typhoon NANMADOL (14W) for Taiwan

2011-08-28T12:45:00.002+01:00

Typhoon NANMADOL (14W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Kaoshsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

RED ALERT!!!: Hurricane IRENE (AL09) for the United States

2011-08-28T12:37:00.000+01:00

Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Canada

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours

Greenland
probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Montpelier (44.3 N, 72.6 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Albany (42.7 N, 73.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)

        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)

probability for TS is 100% currently
Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours

Sept-Iles (50.3 N, 66.4 W)

probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)

probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)

probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

    Goose Bay (53.3 N, 60.3 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours
    Quebec (46.8 N, 71.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)

probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours

Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W)

        probability for TS is 80% currently
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours

Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)

probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

RED ALERT!!!: Typhoon NANMADOL (14W) for the Philippines and Taiwan

2011-08-27T23:32:00.000+01:00

Typhoon NANMADOL (14W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kaoshsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

RED ALERT!!!: Hurricane IRENE (AL09) for the United States

2011-08-27T23:26:00.000+01:00

Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
    Greenland
        probability for TS is 70% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
    Montpelier (44.3 N, 72.6 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
    Sept-Iles (50.3 N, 66.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours
    Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours
    Goose Bay (53.3 N, 60.3 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Albany (42.7 N, 73.8 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
    Richmond (37.5 N, 77.5 W)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
    Quebec (46.8 N, 71.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours
    Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)
        probability for TS is 55% currently
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

RED ALERT!!!: Hurricane IRENE (AL09) for the United States

2011-08-27T16:42:00.000+01:00

Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours
    Greenland
        probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
    Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
    Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
    Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours
    Richmond (37.5 N, 77.5 W)
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    Albany (42.7 N, 73.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
    Sept-Iles (50.3 N, 66.4 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
    Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    Montpelier (44.3 N, 72.6 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours
    Goose Bay (53.3 N, 60.3 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours
    Quebec (46.8 N, 71.2 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours
    Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)
        probability for TS is 65% currently
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Latest satellite images Hurricane Irene

2011-08-27T14:21:00.002+01:00

Latest Trackmaps Hurricane Irene

2011-08-27T13:52:00.000+01:00

CENTER OF IRENE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA

2011-08-27T13:27:00.004+01:00

HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 76.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NNE OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN NEW BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF IRENE
MADE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 730 AM
EDT...1130 UTC. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF IRENE AT LANDFALL WAS
85 MPH...140 KM/H...CATEGORY ONE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
WIND SCALE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW
ENGLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
260 MILES...415 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 84
MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
A COASTAL MARINE OBSERVING SITE AT CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 954.0 MB...28.17 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE DAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
(NOAA)

RED ALERT!!!: Hurricane IRENE (AL09) for the United States and Canada

2011-08-27T12:05:00.000+01:00

Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
    Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
    Albany (42.7 N, 73.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours
    Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
    Montpelier (44.3 N, 72.6 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours
    Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours
    Richmond (37.5 N, 77.5 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Quebec (46.8 N, 71.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours
    Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
    Sept-Iles (50.3 N, 66.4 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
    Goose Bay (53.3 N, 60.3 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)
        probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

RED ALERT!!!: Typhoon NANMADOL (14W) for the Philippines

2011-08-27T11:58:00.000+01:00

Typhoon NANMADOL (14W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kaoshsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

RED ALERT!!!: Typhoon NANMADOL (14W) for the Philippines

2011-08-27T01:08:00.000+01:00

Typhoon NANMADOL (14W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Kaoshsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China

        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours

        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Latest Trackmaps Hurricane Irene

2011-08-26T23:44:00.003+01:00

Latest satellite images Hurricane Irene

2011-08-26T23:37:00.002+01:00

RED ALERT!!!: Hurricane IRENE (AL09) for the United States

2011-08-26T22:46:00.002+01:00

Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
    Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Bahamas
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Richmond (37.5 N, 77.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours
    Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
    Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
    Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
    Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
    Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
    Albany (42.7 N, 73.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
    Montpelier (44.3 N, 72.6 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
    Quebec (46.8 N, 71.2 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

RED ALERT:Hurricane IRENE (AL09) for the Bahamas

2011-08-24T20:15:00.001+01:00

Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Bahamas
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Turks & Caicos Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nassau (25.1 N, 77.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours

        probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Haiti
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Dominican Republic

probability for TS is 90% currently

    Cuba
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

probability for TS is 90% currently

Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

YELLOW ALERT!!!: Tropical Storm MUIFA (11W) for China

2011-08-07T20:09:00.000+01:00

Tropical Storm MUIFA (11W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

North Korea
probability for TS is 100% currently

South Korea
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

P'yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Weihai (37.4 N, 122.1 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)

probability for TS is 100% currently

    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Sinuiju (40.1 N, 124.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Shenyang (41.8 N, 123.4 E)

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Anshan (41.1 N, 123.0 E)

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Haiyang (36.8 N, 121.2 E)

probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Kanggye (41.0 N, 126.6 E)

probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours

Dalian (39.0 N, 121.6 E)

probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Ch'ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)

probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Changchun (43.9 N, 125.3 E)

probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours

Hamhung (39.9 N, 127.6 E)

probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

YELLOW ALERT!!!: Tropical Depression EMILY (AL05) for the Bahamas

2011-08-07T19:04:00.002+01:00

Tropical Depression EMILY (AL05) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Bahamas
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

RED ALERT!!!: Typhoon MUIFA (11W) for China

2011-08-04T21:53:00.000+01:00

Typhoon MUIFA (11W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 48 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shanghai (31.2 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
    Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
    Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Taizhou (32.4 N, 119.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Xiangshui (34.2 N, 119.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

RED ALERT!!!: Typhoon MUIFA (11W) for China

2011-08-04T12:24:00.002+01:00

Typhoon MUIFA (11W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Shanghai (31.2 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Taizhou (32.4 N, 119.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSW Atlantic Tropical Storm EMILY: For DOMINICAN REPUBLIC and HAITI

2011-08-04T12:19:00.000+01:00

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE ISLAND OF
HISPANIOLA...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 71.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD

YELLOW ALERT!!!: Tropical Storm EMILY (AL05) for the Dominican Republic

2011-08-03T16:23:00.000+01:00

Tropical Storm EMILY (AL05) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Dominican Republic
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    Haiti
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Santo Domingo (18.7 N, 69.9 W)
        probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours
    Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

RED ALERT!!!: Typhoon MUIFA (11W) for Okinawa

2011-08-03T16:18:00.002+01:00

Typhoon MUIFA (11W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shanghai (31.2 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Taizhou (32.4 N, 119.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Xiangshui (34.2 N, 119.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

RED ALERT!!!: Typhoon MUIFA (11W) for Okinawa

2011-08-02T20:13:00.002+01:00

Typhoon MUIFA (11W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China

        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours
    South Korea

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Shanghai (31.2 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours

Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)

        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours

Taizhou (32.4 N, 119.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 120 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Tropical Storm MA-ON (08W):RED ALERT FOR JAPAN

2011-07-19T16:13:00.002+01:00

Tropical Storm MA-ON (08W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Typhoon SONGDA (04W);YELLOW ALERT FOR JAPAN

2011-05-28T18:19:00.001+01:00

Typhoon SONGDA (04W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours

        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

    Saga (33.0 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours

        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Super Typhoon SONGDA (04W); RED ALERT FOR OKINAWA

2011-05-26T15:25:00.002+01:00

Super Typhoon SONGDA (04W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Tropical Storm ERROL (21S) :Yellow warning for Indonesia

2011-04-15T17:35:00.000+01:00

Tropical Storm ERROL (21S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Indonesia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nemperola (10.9 S, 122.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Sawu (10.6 S, 122.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant faces new reactor problem

2011-03-12T22:33:00.000Z

(Reuters) - A quake-hit Japanese nuclear plant reeling from an explosion at one of its reactors has also lost its emergency cooling system at another reactor, Japan's nuclear power safety agency said on Sunday.

The emergency cooling system is no longer functioning at the No.3 reactor at Tokyo Electric Power Co's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power facility, requiring the facility to urgently secure a means to supply water to the reactor, an official of the Japan Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency told a news conference.

On Saturday, an explosion blew off the roof and upper walls of the building housing the facility's No. 1 reactor, stirring alarm over a possible major radiation release, although the government later said the explosion had not affected the reactor's core vessel and that only a small amount of radiation had been released.

The nuclear safety agency official said there was a possibility that at least nine individuals had been exposed to radiation, according to information gathered from municipal governments and other sources.

(Reporting by Risa Maeda; Editing by Edmund Klamann)

Japan Hit By Massive Earthquake, Tsunami

2011-03-11T17:11:00.002Z

Tsunami warning issued for at least 20 countries after quake

2011-03-11T11:30:00.002Z

(CNN) -- The threat of a tsunami prompted the U.S. National Weather Service to issue a warning for at least 20 countries and numerous Pacific islands after an 8.9-magnitude earthquake struck Japan Friday.

The wide-ranging list includes Russia and Indonesia, Central American countries like Guatemala, El Salvador and Costa Rica and the U.S. state of Hawaii. The weather service's bulletin is intended "as advice to government agencies."

The quake, which struck near the coast of Honshu on Friday afternoon unleashed a wall of water that rushed in toward land, leveling houses and cars in its path.
Authorities in the U.S. territory of Guam said a tsunami could hit the island as early as 7:09 p.m. (4:09 a.m. ET). Sirens sounded in Hawaii around 10 p.m. Thursday (3 a.m. ET), warning residents they could expect tsunami waves five hours later.
The West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center early Friday issued a tsunami warning for coastal areas along the United States and Canadian west coasts. The tsunami warning includes coastal areas of California and Oregon from Point Conception to the Oregon-Washington border. It also includes coastal areas of Alaska from Amchitka Pass to Attu.

In the Philippines, the government has evacuated 20 coast areas. A tsunami could could hit by 6 p.m. (5 a.m. ET), it said.

Meanwhile, the regional government in eastern Taiwan's Taitung county canceled classes and work, but did not immediately begin evacuations.
Russia's emergency situations ministry said more than 11,000 people living in dangerous areas had been evacuated after a tsunami warning was issued for the Kuril Islands. Ships docked in open ports were heading back out to sea to avoid being hit by tsunami waves, the ministry said.

Chip McCreary of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said officials estimated the quake was already causing waves with magnitudes of up to 2 meters above normal sea level.

"This is a very large earthquake. We've evaluated it as about the same size as the earthquake last year in Chile. However, it's much closer to the Hawaiian islands than the Chile earthquake," he said.

The National Weather Service list includes Japan, Russia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia, Fiji, Mexico, New Zealand, Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Panama, Honduras, Chile, Ecuador, Colombia, Peru and the United States.

Numerous Pacific islands, including some U.S. territories, are also on the list.
Friday's 8.9-magnitude temblor in Japan was the largest earthquake since a 9.0-magnitude earthquake struck the Banda Aceh area of Indonesia on Dec. 26, 2004, causing a massive tsunami that killed about 250,000 people in 14 countries and washed away entire communities. The tsunami caused nearly $10 billion in damage and more casualties than any other tsunami in history, according to the United Nations.
Tsunami waves can travel at speeds of 800 kilometers per hour. The earthquake, initially reported as a 7.8 earthquake, was upgraded to an 8.9 quake.
"When you jump a magnitude from 7 to 8, it's not 10 times stronger, it's a 1000 times stronger," said CNN International meteorologist Ivan Cabrera. "With an ... earthquake that shallow, that close to shore, there will be more than one tsunami."

Tropical Storm CARLOS (15S): RED ALERT FOR AUSTRALIA

2011-02-22T14:23:00.001Z

Tropical Storm CARLOS (15S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Onslow (21.7 S, 115.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 85% currently

Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)

probability for TS is 75% currently

Exmouth (22.0 S, 114.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Cardabia (23.0 S, 113.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Tropical Storm CARLOS (15S): YELLOW ALERT FOR AUSTRALIA

2011-02-21T17:14:00.000Z

Tropical Storm CARLOS (15S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Onslow (21.7 S, 115.0 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
Exmouth (22.0 S, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Cardabia (23.0 S, 113.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Intense Tropical Cyclone ATU (17P) :RED ALERT FOR VANUATU AND LENAKEL

2011-02-21T12:14:00.000Z

Intense Tropical Cyclone ATU (17P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vanuatu
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Lamen (16.6 S, 168.2 E)
probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Tropical Storm CARLOS (15S): YELLOW ALERT FOR AUSTRALIA

2011-02-21T12:11:00.001Z

Tropical Storm CARLOS (15S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)

probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Onslow (21.7 S, 115.0 E)

probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Exmouth (22.0 S, 114.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Cardabia (23.0 S, 113.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Tropical Storm CARLOS (15S): YELLOW ALERT FOR AUSTRALIA

2011-02-21T00:00:00.001Z

ropical Storm CARLOS (15S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for TS is 80% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Broome (18.0 S, 122.2 E)
probability for TS is 80% currently
Lagrange (18.7 S, 121.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
Onslow (21.7 S, 115.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Exmouth (22.0 S, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Cardabia (23.0 S, 113.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Very Intense TC ATU (17P) :RED ALERT FOR VANUATU and LENAKEL

2011-02-20T23:51:00.003Z

Very Intense TC ATU (17P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vanuatu probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
New Caledonia
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Lamen (16.6 S, 168.2 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Norsup (16.0 S, 167.4 E)
probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR: Tropical storm "Yasi" second most damaging Australian cyclone on record

2011-02-03T13:11:00.001Z

According to TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) Cyclone Yasi will be the second most damaging Australian cyclone on record after cyclone Tracy which struck Darwin in 1974.

"Based on Yasi's immediate post-event windfield and TSR's new high resolution loss model we are looking at a total insured damage bill of about A$ 3.5 billion" said Professor Mark Saunders, the TSR Director.

Yasi made landfall near to Mission Beach in northeast Queensland at around 14:00 GMT on 2 February (00:00 GMT on 3 February local time) with peak 3-sec gusts of about 170 mph. Yasi is the most powerful cyclone to strike the east coast of Australia since 1918.

The immediate post-event peak gust windfield for Yasi as modelled by TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) is shown in the attached image. This shows that peak gusts of at least 100 mph affected a coastal extent of 100 miles stretching from just south of Cairns to Ingham.
Gusts exceeding 100mph also extended over 100 miles inland.

Fortunately the major cities of Cairns and Townsville were largely spared significant damage; otherwise the insured loss from Yasi may have rivalled that from cyclone Tracy.
(TSR)

Tropical Storm YASI (11P): YELLOW ALERT FOR AUSTRALIA (FINAL WARNING)

2011-02-03T12:53:00.001Z

Tropical Storm YASI (11P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mount Isa (20.8 S, 139.5 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Very intense Cyclone Yasi hits Queensland Hard

2011-02-02T17:34:00.000Z

Cyclone Yasi has crossed the northern Queensland coastline, the storm which is roughly three times larger than the UK has crossed onto land and is making its presence felt.

Rick Threlfall, spokesman for the Bureau of Meteorology says that the category five cyclone is producing winds up to 280 km per hour. The worst is being felt around the mission beach area where the eye of the storm is expected to cross onto land today.

“The real core strength of the winds will be in the eye wall,” he said. The storm is currently measured at roughly 500km wide with the eye of the storm roughly 35km in diameter but the strongest and most destructive wind is directly around the eye.

“So people in that Mission Beach area anywhere between Innisfail and about Cardwell will be starting to feel winds potentially up to that level well in the next few minutes.”

Townsville is being hit hard with trees being ripped from the ground, windows being shattered and roofing being blown away. Wil Kemp, a resident of Castle Hill said,

“The rain doesn’t fall, it just comes in horizontally as the wind goes roaring past.”

Thousands have been evacuated from the cyclone’s path but many were either too late or unwilling to leave. Those who have remained have been advised to board up windows and stay sheltered, those living on low ground have been advised to move to higher ground to avoid the estimated 5 metre storm surge which is expected to engulf many low lying areas.

Very Intense TC YASI (11P): RED ALERT FOR AUSTRALIA

2011-02-02T17:30:00.001Z

Very Intense TC YASI (11P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Cairns (16.9 S, 145.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Innisfail (17.5 S, 146.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Tully (17.8 S, 145.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Cooktown (15.4 S, 145.1 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Port Douglas (16.4 S, 145.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Hughenden (20.9 S, 144.2 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Normanton (17.8 S, 141.0 E)
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Mount Isa (20.8 S, 139.5 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
Burketown (17.7 S, 139.4 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Powerful CAT.4 cyclone nears flood-hit Queensland

2011-02-02T12:53:00.002Z

(CNN) -- Australians braced Wednesday as a massive, powerful cyclone neared the already flood-ravaged northern state of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi had strengthened to a Category 5, the highest designation on Australia's cyclone classification system, and was predicted to make landfall near midnight (9 a.m. ET) Wednesday.

"I have all my rations ready to go, batteries, candles," said Carl Butcher, who lives in the coastal city of Cairns in Queensland state. "The authorities have been very proactive in informing us about this system. We have known about it for a week. That is more than enough time to prepare for it."

More than 20 people died and thousands of homes were wrecked when severe flooding hit Queensland in January, affecting 3.1 million people.

Lachlan Brown, from Townsville, told CNN he was currently experiencing the calm before the storm.

"The street lights have been going on and off. We lost power a couple of times and it's come back on. There's quite a few boats in the creek next to us tied to jetties, but they're moving around a lot so I don't know how long they're going to last."
Carly Wallace, who lives near Cairns, said she'd been stocking up on food and water.
"There's always panic buying when it comes to cyclones -- everyone goes a little bit crazy. But with this one, because of how big it is, everyone's going out buying everything," the Atherton Tablelands resident said.

Wallace said grocery store shelves were empty in the town of Atherton.
"Nearly everything was gone off the shelf, even long-life milk and things like batteries and tape. There was no bread at all. So everyone is panic-buying but I think it's for good reason."

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi has winds of 230 kph (143 mph) and maximum wind gusts of 300 kph (186 mph), and is expected to maintain that intensity until making landfall, forecasters said.
CNN Meteorologist Jennifer Delgado said there will be heavy rain in Queensland and the rain could continue until Friday.

Queensland is no stranger to cyclones.
Many residents of the state had to take shelter last March when Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Ului barreled in. But that storm will not compare to the strength that Tropical Cyclone Yasi packs.

Queensland Deputy Police Commissioner Ian Stewart warned the state faces "one of the most significant weather events" in its history.

"This is a life-threatening storm, and people need to understand that they have a final window of opportunity to self-evacuate," Stewart said earlier.
The state's premier, Anna Bligh, has urged residents in the threatened areas to take sensible precautions and to stay inside once the storm hits.

The cyclone threatens more devastation for Queensland, which already has been hit by deadly flooding in recent weeks.

Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard has announced a one-off flood tax aimed at helping to pay for the estimated AUS $5.6 billion (US $5.58 billion) damage caused.
"It's all deserted, has been for quite a few hours. There's quite a few trees down and some powerlines.

Latest satellite images and trackmaps TC "YASI"

2011-02-02T12:22:00.005Z

Very Intense TC YASI (11P): RED ALERT FOR AUSTRALIA

2011-02-02T12:22:00.001Z

Very Intense TC YASI (11P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Innisfail (17.5 S, 146.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Tully (17.8 S, 145.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Cairns (16.9 S, 145.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Douglas (16.4 S, 145.3 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Hughenden (20.9 S, 144.2 E)
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Cooktown (15.4 S, 145.1 E)
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Mount Isa (20.8 S, 139.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Normanton (17.8 S, 141.0 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Very Intense TC YASI (11P): RED ALERT FOR AUSTRALIA

2011-02-01T17:39:00.000Z

Very Intense TC YASI (11P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Cairns (16.9 S, 145.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Innisfail (17.5 S, 146.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Tully (17.8 S, 145.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Port Douglas (16.4 S, 145.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Cooktown (15.4 S, 145.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Hughenden (20.9 S, 144.2 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Normanton (17.8 S, 141.0 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Mount Isa (20.8 S, 139.5 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Intense tropical cyclone Yasi is forecast to strike Australia as a very intense tropical cyclone at about 12:00 GMT on 2 February

2011-02-01T17:22:00.000Z

Intense tropical cyclone Yasi is forecast to strike Australia as a very intense tropical cyclone at about 12:00 GMT on 2 February.Data supplied by theUS Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Centersuggest that the point of landfallwill benear17.2 S,146.4 E.Yasi is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around212 km/h (132 mph).Wind gusts in the area maybeconsiderably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm ofYasi'sstrength (category 4)at landfall includes:

Storm surge generally 4.0-5.5 metres (13-18 feet) above normal.
Curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences.
Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down.
Complete destruction of mobile homes.
Extensive damage to doors and windows.
Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the centre of the storm.

Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore.
Terrain lower than 3 metres (10 feet) above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 10 km (6 miles).
There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

This alert is provided by TropicalStorm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance,Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL). TSR acknowledges thesupport of the UK Met Office.

Latest satellite and track images typhoon YASI

2011-02-01T15:22:00.000Z

Intense Tropical Cyclone YASI (11P): RED ALERT FOR AUSTRALIA

2011-02-01T11:45:00.000Z

Intense Tropical Cyclone YASI (11P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Cairns (16.9 S, 145.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
Innisfail (17.5 S, 146.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
Tully (17.8 S, 145.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
Port Douglas (16.4 S, 145.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
Cooktown (15.4 S, 145.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Tropical Cyclone YASI (11P): RED alert for Australia

2011-01-31T16:53:00.000Z

Tropical Cyclone YASI (11P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Innisfail (17.5 S, 146.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Cairns (16.9 S, 145.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Tully (17.8 S, 145.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Solomon Islands
probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Port Douglas (16.4 S, 145.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Tropical Cyclone YASI (11P): Yellow alert for Australia

2011-01-31T11:57:00.001Z

Tropical Cyclone YASI (11P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Innisfail (17.5 S, 146.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Tully (17.8 S, 145.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Cairns (16.9 S, 145.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Port Douglas (16.4 S, 145.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Tropical Storm ZELIA (07P): Yellow alert for New Zealand

2011-01-17T21:08:00.001Z

Tropical Storm ZELIA (07P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
New Zealand
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Tropical Storm VANIA :RED ALERT FOR NEW CALEDONIA

2011-01-13T22:17:00.000Z

Tropical Storm VANIA (05P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
New Caledonia

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 95% currently

Noum'ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)

probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Tropical Storm VANIA :RED ALERT FOR NEW CALEDONIA

2011-01-13T22:15:00.001Z

Tropical Storm VANIA (05P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
New Caledonia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Noum'ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vanuatu
probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
probability for TS is 70% currently
Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Tropical Storm VANIA (05P) forecast and strike probability

2011-01-12T18:39:00.001Z

Tropical Storm VANIA (05P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vanuatu
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 70% currently
New Caledonia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 70% currently
Noum'ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

RED ALERT FOR INDIA Severe Cyclonic Storm JAL (05B)

2010-11-07T12:45:00.000Z

Severe Cyclonic Storm JAL (05B) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Madras (13.1 N, 80.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nellore (14.4 N, 80.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Kavali (15.0 N, 80.0 E)

probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Pondicherry (11.9 N, 79.8 E)

probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TOMAS HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...

2010-11-05T11:35:00.001Z

HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT TOMAS HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 74.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL PASS
NEAR WESTERN HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA
TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
REPORTS IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA AND IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN HAITI.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING TODAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

RED ALERT FOR HAITI, BAHAMAS and the TURK & CAICOS ISLANDS

2010-11-05T09:11:00.001Z

Hurricane TOMAS (AL21) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Haiti
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
the Bahamas
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
the Turks & Caicos Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Cuba
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
the Dominican Republic
probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)
probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)
probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Latest satellite and track images "TOMAS"

2010-11-05T08:51:00.000Z

YELLOW ALERT!!! FOR HAITI Tropical Storm TOMAS (AL21)

2010-11-05T08:12:00.001Z

Tropical Storm TOMAS (AL21) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Haiti
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
the Bahamas
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
Cuba
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TOMAS APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING

2010-11-05T08:11:00.000Z

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...TOMAS APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
APPROACHING...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 75.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM WSW OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.3 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS
WILL PASS NEAR WESTERN HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME
EASTERN CUBA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...
220 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA AND IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN HAITI.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING TODAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

YELLOW ALERT FOR THE PHILIPPINES "TYPHOON MEGI"

2010-10-19T15:21:00.000+01:00

Typhoon MEGI (15W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines

probability for TS is 80% currently
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours

Macau
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

RED ALERT FOR THE PHILIPPINES "TYPHOON MEGI"

2010-10-18T15:12:00.000+01:00

Typhoon MEGI (15W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% currently
probability for TS is 85% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

RED ALERT FOR THE PHILIPPINES "SUPER TYPHOON MEGI"

2010-10-17T15:36:00.001+01:00

Super Typhoon MEGI (15W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

RED ALERT FOR THE PHILIPPINES "SUPER TYPHOON MEGI"

2010-10-17T15:22:00.000+01:00

Super Typhoon MEGI (15W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)

probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Typhoon MEGI forecast and strike probability

2010-10-16T14:22:00.001+01:00

Typhoon MEGI (15W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

IGOR WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT STILL LARGE AND DANGEROUS... ...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING...

2010-09-18T22:20:00.001+01:00

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

...IGOR WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT STILL LARGE AND DANGEROUS...
...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 64.3W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR WILL PASS NEAR
OR OVER BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...ADVERSE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
345 MILES...555 KM. NOAA BUOY 41049...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES...
130 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF IGOR...RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 62 MPH...100 KM/HR...AND A GUST OF 76 MPH...
122 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
EVENING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

FORECASTER BEVEN

RED ALERT!!! Typhoon FANAPI (12W) for Taiwan

2010-09-18T22:11:00.001+01:00

Typhoon FANAPI (12W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

RED ALERT!!! Hurricane IGOR (AL11) for Bermuda

2010-09-18T21:59:00.001+01:00

Hurricane IGOR (AL11) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Bermuda

probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Canada

probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE MEXICAN GULF COAST...

2010-09-16T21:29:00.000+01:00

HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY

...KARL BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
MEXICAN GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 92.8W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ...AND FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECASTER BEVEN
NOAA

YELLOW ALERT!!! Typhoon FANAPI (12W) for Taiwan

2010-09-16T21:27:00.000+01:00

Typhoon FANAPI (12W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

YELLOW ALERT!!! Intense Hurricane IGOR (AL11) for Bermuda

2010-09-16T21:20:00.001+01:00

Intense Hurricane IGOR (AL11) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Bermuda
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

RED ALERT!!! Hurricane KARL (AL13) for Mexico

2010-09-16T21:19:00.000+01:00

Hurricane KARL (AL13) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

RED ALERT!!! Intense Hurricane EARL for the United States

2010-09-02T16:25:00.000+01:00

Intense Hurricane EARL (AL07) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Canada

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours

Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours

Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours

Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours

Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours

Montauk (41.0 N, 72.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)

probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours

Capeville (37.2 N, 75.9 W)

probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)

probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours

Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours

Goose Bay (53.3 N, 60.3 W)

probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours

Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)

probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Atlantic City (39.0 N, 74.8 W)

probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

Salisbury (38.3 N, 75.6 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

Portland (43.5 N, 70.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Hartford (41.5 N, 72.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Belmar (40.1 N, 74.1 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours
Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Latest trackmaps Hurricane EARL

2010-09-01T20:09:00.001+01:00

Latest satellite images Hurricane EARL

2010-09-01T20:01:00.002+01:00

YELLOW ALERT!!! Tropical Storm FIONA

2010-09-01T17:45:00.000+01:00

Tropical Storm FIONA (AL08) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Antigua and Barbuda
probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
Anguilla
probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
Guadeloupe
probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
St. Kitts and Nevis
probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours
Montserrat
probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours
the British Virgin Islands
probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
the Netherlands Antilles
probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

REDA ALERT!!! Typhoon KOMPASU for South Korea

2010-09-01T17:42:00.001+01:00

Typhoon KOMPASU (08W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
South Korea
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
North Korea
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
P'yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Ch'ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Hamhung (39.9 N, 127.6 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

YELLOW ALERT!!! Tropical Storm LIONROCK

2010-09-01T17:39:00.000+01:00

Tropical Storm LIONROCK (07W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

FIONA PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

2010-09-01T17:28:00.000+01:00

WTNT33 KNHC 011440
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010

...FIONA PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 61.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF FIONA SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE