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| Tropical Storm PHYAN forecast and strike probability |
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Tropical Storm PHYAN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Harnai (17.8 N, 73.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Pune (18.5 N, 73.9 E)
probability for TS is 85% currently
Bombay (19.1 N, 72.8 E)
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Daman (20.4 N, 73.0 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Vijayadurg (16.6 N, 73.4 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office. |
posted by moderator 5:51 PM |
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| Tropical Storm IDA forecast and strike probability |
| Monday, November 9, 2009 |
Tropical Storm IDA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mobile (30.7 N, 88.1 W)
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
probability for TS is 70% currently
Montgomery (32.4 N, 86.3 W)
probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office. |
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posted by moderator9:47 PM |
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| IDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... |
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IDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 9 AM CST...1500 UTC...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ALONG
THE GULF COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA
RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA
FLORIDA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 70
MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TODAY AS IDA APPROACHES THE COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
RAINS FROM IDA WILL BE REACHING THE COAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES.
A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
...SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...26.5N 88.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300
PM CST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
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posted by moderator3:06 PM |
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| Hurricane Ida aims for Gulf of Mexico oil fields |
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CANCUN, Mexico (Reuters) – Hurricane Ida roared toward the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, where important oil fields are located, after killing 91 people and leaving at least another 60 missing in floods and mudslides in El Salvador.
Ida swept past the Mexican resort of Cancun and aimed for the Gulf of Mexico but is expected to weaken gradually as it heads toward some of the oil and gas production facilities in the central Gulf, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
The storm reached hurricane force again late on Saturday and strengthened to a Category 2 storm on Sunday with sustained winds of near 100 mph, the Miami-based hurricane center said in its 4 p.m. EST (2100 GMT) advisory.
Some energy companies in the Gulf of Mexico were evacuating workers from offshore platforms, but so far oil and gas output had not been affected.
The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the only terminal in the United States capable of handling the largest tankers, said it would stop unloading ships due to stormy seas.
A quarter of U.S. oil and 15 percent of its natural gas are produced from fields in the Gulf and the coast is home to 40 percent of the nation's refining capacity.
The hurricane center set a hurricane watch from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Mexico Beach in northwestern Florida, but did not include the city of New Orleans. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are expected in the area within 36 hours.
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency on Sunday, allowing the government to mobilize troops and rescue workers.
If Ida makes landfall in Louisiana it would be the first storm to strike the state since Hurricane Gustav came ashore in September 2008.
DEATH TOLL RISES
In El Salvador, rivers burst their banks and hillsides collapsed under relentless rains triggered by Ida's passage, cutting off parts of the mountainous interior from the rest of the country.
El Salvador's government said 91 people were killed and at least 60 were missing as a result of deadly mudslides and floods.
As of 4 p.m. EST (1800 GMT), Ida was 95 miles west-northwest of the western tip of Cuba, the hurricane center said. It was moving north-northwest near 10 mph and was forecast to turn toward the north over the next two days.
In Mexico, the government urged people to avoid unnecessary travel in the Yucatan Peninsula and imposed restrictions on coastal shipping.
About 1,000 people were evacuated from Holbox island northwest of Cancun, an isolated fishing community and sanctuary for thousands of flamingos and other exotic birds.
In Cancun the airport remained open but there were no plans to evacuate approximately 12,000 people visiting the resort, which is popular with American tourists.
Ida first became a hurricane on Thursday off the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, where heavy rains forced more than 5,000 people into shelters.
The country's coffee crop was not directly affected by the storm, according to the local coffee council.
(Additional reporting by Jose Cortazar in Cancun, Nelson Renteria in San Salvador, Ivan Castro in Managua and Erwin Seba in Houston; Writing by Robert Campbell; Editing by Eric Beech) |
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posted by moderator1:58 PM |
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| Hurricane IDA forecast and strike probability |
| Sunday, November 8, 2009 |
Hurricane IDA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Cuba
probability for TS is 90% currently
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours
Mexico
probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mobile (30.7 N, 88.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours
Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office. |
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posted by moderator10:50 PM |
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| CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... |
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CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...
155 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT
510 MILES...815 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
IDA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND IDA IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
...SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...22.2N 86.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900
PM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS |
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posted by moderator10:39 PM |
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| Ida kills 91 in El Salvador, heads for U.S. Gulf Coast |
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MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Flooding and mudslides triggered by Hurricane Ida's torrential rainfall have killed at least 91 people in El Salvador, and the death toll is expected to rise, the government said Sunday.
As the storm -- which regained hurricane intensity overnight -- headed through the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf of Mexico, a hurricane watch was issued Sunday for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Ida also drenched Nicaragua after making landfall last week as a Category 1 hurricane, then weakened to a tropical storm.
The U.S. watch -- meaning hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours -- extends from Grand Isle, Louisiana, eastward to Mexico Beach, Florida, forecasters said. It does not include the city of New Orleans, Louisiana, the hurricane center said.
Track Ida's progress
The watch prompted Gov. Bobby Jindal to declare a state of emergency in Louisiana. The declaration frees the state's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness to take certain measures to prepare for the storm and deal with it should it hit the state.
Ida was expected to brush the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday afternoon.
As of 1 p.m. ET, Ida had reached Category 2 intensity, with maximum sustained winds of near 100 miles per hour (160 kilometers per hour) and higher gusts. Some additional strengthening was possible Sunday, but the storm was expected to weaken on Monday and begin losing tropical characteristics on Tuesday, the hurricane center said.
The center of Ida was located about 100 miles (155 kilometers) north-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and about 75 miles west of the western tip of Cuba, forecasters said. It was moving northwest at near 10 mph and was expected to increase in speed and turn toward the north-northwest later, then northward by Tuesday.
"On the forecast track, the center of Ida should move into the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and be near the northern Gulf Coast by Tuesday," the hurricane center said.
Once Ida moves into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions are expected to be unfavorable for any additional development, said CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen. Ida is expected to weaken because of a combination of wind shear, cooler water temperatures and the storm's interaction with a strong frontal system pushing off the Gulf Coast, he said.
However, Ida still could bring heavy rain to the Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast, he said.
A hurricane warning remained in effect on the Yucatan Peninsula from Playa del Carmen to Cabo Catoche, meaning that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area within 24 hours, the National Hurricane Center said. A hurricane watch remained in effect for the peninsula from Tulum to Playa del Carmen.
A tropical storm warning was in effect for the Yucatan from Punta Allen north to Playa Del Carmen and from Cabo Catoche west to San Felipe, forecasters said. In addition, a tropical storm warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch remained in effect for the Isle of Youth, forecasters said.
Ida could bring between 3 and 5 inches of rain to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba, with isolated amounts of 10 inches possible in some spots, forecasters said. In addition, a storm surge could raise water levels by 3 to 4 feet along the coast of the Yucatan, forecasters said. "Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves," the hurricane center said.
Ida is the Atlantic region's ninth named storm. The Atlantic hurricane season ends November 30.
cnn |
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posted by moderator10:36 PM |
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